When homeowners in the Kelso and Longview area ask me whether a heat pump or a gas furnace makes more financial sense, I give them an honest answer: it depends on your situation, but for most homes in Southwest Washington, the numbers are closer than you might expect. And once you factor in everything, the heat pump usually wins.
Here is how I work through it.
The Two Numbers That Matter Most
The math comes down to two things: how much you pay per unit of energy, and how efficiently each system uses it.
Local energy costs (as of early 2025):
- Electricity (Cowlitz PUD): approximately 9 cents per kilowatt-hour
- Natural gas (Cascade Natural Gas): approximately 91 cents per therm
Those are the current rates most Kelso and Longview homeowners are paying. Gas is still inexpensive here, which is part of what makes this comparison interesting.
Efficiency ratings:
- A modern heat pump (like the Bosch units I install) carries an HSPF2 rating of around 9, which translates to a real-world seasonal efficiency well above 200 percent. That is not a typo. Heat pumps move heat rather than generate it, so they deliver two to three units of warmth for every one unit of electricity consumed.
- A high-efficiency gas furnace runs at 95 to 96 percent AFUE, meaning 95 to 96 cents of every dollar spent on gas becomes heat in your home.
Running the Numbers for a Typical Home
For a 2,000 square foot home in this area, a rough annual heating bill looks like this:
| System | Annual Energy Cost |
|---|---|
| Modern heat pump (HSPF2 9) | $425 to $450 |
| High-efficiency gas furnace (95% AFUE) | $375 to $400 |
On operating costs alone, gas comes out slightly ahead. That is the honest answer and I am not going to hide it.
But here is what changes the picture.
What the Simple Math Misses
Heat pumps also cool your home. A heat pump is both your heater and your air conditioner. If you are comparing a heat pump to a gas furnace, a fair comparison includes the cost of adding central air conditioning. Once you add that, the total system cost and operating cost often favor the heat pump.
Washington’s electricity rates are low by national standards. At 9 cents per kilowatt-hour, Cowlitz PUD customers pay about a third of what homeowners in California or New England pay. That cheap electricity is what makes heat pumps viable here even when gas is also inexpensive.
Gas prices are rising faster than electricity. Cascade Natural Gas received a 7.88 percent rate increase effective March 2025, with another increase the following year. Cowlitz PUD went seven years without a rate increase before 2024. Gas furnaces lock you into one fuel source; heat pumps give you more stability.
The climate here is ideal for heat pumps. Heat pumps are most efficient when outdoor temperatures are between 30 and 50 degrees. That is exactly the range Southwest Washington sits in for most of the winter. Extended below-zero cold snaps are rare in this area. A heat pump installed in Kelso operates near peak efficiency most of the heating season.
Washington’s electricity is already clean. About 80 percent of Washington’s grid is decarbonized, driven by hydropower from the Columbia River system. Running a heat pump here means significantly lower carbon emissions compared to burning gas, and that advantage grows as the grid continues to clean up.
What About Upfront Costs?
A heat pump system for a 2,000 square foot home typically runs between $7,000 and $12,000 installed, depending on equipment and what existing ductwork needs to be done. A gas furnace replacement usually runs $4,000 to $6,000.
The gap is real. But Cowlitz PUD offers rebates on heat pump installations (call their energy efficiency line at 360-501-9514 for current amounts), and the Washington State HEAR program provides additional rebates for qualifying households. These incentives can close the cost gap substantially.
I also offer financing, so the upfront difference does not always mean a bigger immediate expense.
When a Gas Furnace Still Makes Sense
I am not here to sell you something that is not right for your situation. A gas furnace may be the better call if:
- You already have a well-functioning gas furnace with several years of life left, and no cooling need
- Your home is very large and poorly insulated, which increases heating demand significantly
- You heat with natural gas and have no interest in adding air conditioning
In those cases, a straight furnace replacement is often the right move, and I can help with that too.
The Bottom Line
For most new installs in the Kelso and Longview area, a heat pump delivers comparable operating costs to a gas furnace, better long-term energy price stability, built-in cooling, and meaningfully lower carbon emissions. The higher upfront cost is real but often reduced by rebates and financing.
If you want to know what the numbers look like for your specific home, square footage, insulation, and existing system, give me a call. I am happy to work through it with you before you make any decisions.